Ethiopia Set to Overtake Indonesia as World's Fourth Largest Coffee Producer

A New Position in the Global Rankings

Ethiopia is forecast to overtake Indonesia as the world's fourth largest coffee producer in the 2026/27 marketing year, according to USDA projections. Ethiopian output is forecast at 12.1 million 60-kilogram bags against Indonesia's 11.38 million — the third time in five years Ethiopia has surpassed Indonesia, and a milestone in the country's steady climb up the global production table behind Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia.

Production has now grown for four consecutive years: 11.46 million bags in 2024/25, 11.56 million in 2025/26, and a projected 12.1 million in 2026/27. Over two decades, Ethiopia's output has nearly tripled from roughly 4.5 million bags in 2005/06.

Smallholders Still Drive the Sector

Around 5.9 million farmers engage in coffee production in Ethiopia, with smallholders accounting for roughly 90 percent of national output. A national rejuvenation campaign is addressing one of the sector's structural challenges: nearly 70 percent of Ethiopia's coffee trees are old, some exceeding 100 years. Stumping old trees can increase yields by as much as threefold within four years, making rejuvenation one of the most powerful levers for future production growth.

Exports Riding the Production Wave

The production gains are flowing directly into trade. In 2024/25, Ethiopia exported 7.43 million bags valued at $2.89 billion — a 31.9 percent increase in volume and 69.4 percent increase in value. China has emerged as a standout growth market, with Ethiopian exports there surging 264 percent to 670,000 bags worth $274 million, making China the third-largest buyer of Ethiopian coffee.

For international buyers, a larger Ethiopian crop means broader availability of Ethiopian green coffee beans across regions and grades. And unlike the robusta-heavy origin it is displacing in the rankings, Ethiopia's production is overwhelmingly Arabica — keeping the country's specialty positioning intact even as volumes scale. Buyers can explore current offerings through an Ethiopian coffee exporter.