ICO August Report Projects a Global Coffee Surplus

August Market Update

The International Coffee Organization’s August 2026 report incorporates supply-and-demand statistics released on September 10. It estimates world production of 183.6 million 60-kilogram bags for coffee year 2025/26 and projects a 3 million-bag surplus. These are estimates for the coffee year, rather than final harvest totals.

Prices Hold Steady

The composite indicator averaged 287.29 US cents per pound in August. A mid-month rally unwound as rainfall in Brazil and expectations of additional supply eased price pressure. The report nevertheless describes tight near-term Arabica availability.

Buyer Perspective

Our reading is that an annual surplus forecast offers limited guidance on whether a particular Ethiopian lot will be available for a required shipment window. Roasters planning purchases should request a current offer tied to the coffee’s grade, processing method, quantity and delivery schedule. A global indicator is useful market context, but the actual lot quotation remains the basis for a purchasing decision. Keeping those two records together also makes later price discussions easier to follow.